SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET – picking durians season ahead?

Well, since I don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future, I tend to rely a lot on historical data to give me an idea what to expect ahead.

If I were to use the May correction as an indication, the market corrected about one whole month (I think a reasonable correction typically takes 2-4weeks and STI falls between 5 to10%) and did not stage any meaningful rebound UNTIL many stocks reached oversold levels technically speaking (I prefer to use stochastics), at least the hot stocks should reach oversold first before the other laggards do.

Now if we look at the hot stocks.....eg celestial, china sun etc I DO NOT see them hitting oversold levels yet. Before that happens, some of them may stage a short live rebound. I prefer to stay on the side until I see MANY of them hitting oversold levels....like picking ripe durians from the ground. If you enter the durian orchard too early, the durians may hit you on your head instead of you picking them up from the ground....haha