SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET NEWS
entering into 3rd week upward move which started 17-18july
31july
I mentioned on 25july that based on historical data from the past two years, market moved upwards in the last 2 weeks of july and peaked in the first week on aug.
I also did some homework further back to 2000. The pattern over the past 5 years was that market rally usually last not more than 16 days (about 2-3 weeks) whether it moved end july or early august. We are ENTERING into the 3rd week of the upward move which started around 17-18 july. The probability of a correction is getting higher if u believe in past data.
With the historical data in hand, what we should watch out for in the next few days are two things :
1. when hot stocks hitting overbought levels (many have NOT reached overbought yet BUT are approaching that level).
2. distribution signs : many hot stocks closed near day low on high volume.
When we see these two signs, and with the knowledge of the historical data, the case for taking profit, as some techincal analysts have been suggesting, will be pretty strong.
Monday, July 31, 2006
Thursday, July 27, 2006
27july06
SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET NEWS
More upside in the short term.....
The potential negative signal (distribution sign) which occurred on 25july DID NOT lead to a subsequent sell down which I was expecting. For any distribution to be CONFIRMED, stock price should close below the day low of 25july. We saw on 26th and today, 27th that stock prices of most hot stocks DID NOT close below the day low of 25july. Instead, MANY hot stocks brokeout of new short term highs on huge volume today........group breakout is a very bullish short term signal normally.
So what to do now, go with the flow la........trade the short term bullish trend.
Near term results date of some stocks with positive technical signs :
1. aztech – 31july
2. cosco – 31july
3. rotary – 3aug
4. DMX – 3 aug
SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET NEWS
More upside in the short term.....
The potential negative signal (distribution sign) which occurred on 25july DID NOT lead to a subsequent sell down which I was expecting. For any distribution to be CONFIRMED, stock price should close below the day low of 25july. We saw on 26th and today, 27th that stock prices of most hot stocks DID NOT close below the day low of 25july. Instead, MANY hot stocks brokeout of new short term highs on huge volume today........group breakout is a very bullish short term signal normally.
So what to do now, go with the flow la........trade the short term bullish trend.
Near term results date of some stocks with positive technical signs :
1. aztech – 31july
2. cosco – 31july
3. rotary – 3aug
4. DMX – 3 aug
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET NEWS
26july06
Many hot stocks closed near day low yesterday on high volume. In fact some of them closed in the red. This is a clear distribution signal indicating that smart money may be unloading again. This is similar to what I noticed and mentioned on 12july, followed by a sharp correction a few days later. This time, the pattern is quite similar, with volume rising for many hot stocks and they closed at day low with day range expanding, not a good sign.
The heavy volume will be due again in a few day’s time so I expect selling pressure to persist in the coming days.
Also, quite a number of technical chartists have been calling for a shortlived rebound and they expect more downside in the days ahead.
The point to note is that, be cautious, take smaller position and also take quick profits.
26july06
Many hot stocks closed near day low yesterday on high volume. In fact some of them closed in the red. This is a clear distribution signal indicating that smart money may be unloading again. This is similar to what I noticed and mentioned on 12july, followed by a sharp correction a few days later. This time, the pattern is quite similar, with volume rising for many hot stocks and they closed at day low with day range expanding, not a good sign.
The heavy volume will be due again in a few day’s time so I expect selling pressure to persist in the coming days.
Also, quite a number of technical chartists have been calling for a shortlived rebound and they expect more downside in the days ahead.
The point to note is that, be cautious, take smaller position and also take quick profits.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET NEWS – HISTORICAL PATTERNS
I was looking at my trading diary last year to see what happened in the month of august in 2005. Well, I noted down then that the market has been moving up in july and peaked in the first week of august right before or right after companies reporting results. Even for those who reported good earnings, a rather sharp correction for the broad market followed after results season is over.
Interetingly, in Aug2004, market also moved up in last 2 weeks of july and hit a short term high in 1st week of aug and corrected for 1-2 weeks.
Over the past 1 week, market has been trending up again, in anticipation of good results for certain stocks. This is a similar pattern to the july upward movements in the past two years. It would be interesting for us to see if this year’s pattern will be similar to last 2 years.
One point to take note though is that, this year there will be more investor events right after results season compared to last year. These events may generate continuous interests and provide some support to the market. There will be DBS, DMG, Citigroup and JP morgan conferences sometime from 15-23rd August.
Nonetheless, I would still set my exit point and monitor the individual stock movement closely.
I was looking at my trading diary last year to see what happened in the month of august in 2005. Well, I noted down then that the market has been moving up in july and peaked in the first week of august right before or right after companies reporting results. Even for those who reported good earnings, a rather sharp correction for the broad market followed after results season is over.
Interetingly, in Aug2004, market also moved up in last 2 weeks of july and hit a short term high in 1st week of aug and corrected for 1-2 weeks.
Over the past 1 week, market has been trending up again, in anticipation of good results for certain stocks. This is a similar pattern to the july upward movements in the past two years. It would be interesting for us to see if this year’s pattern will be similar to last 2 years.
One point to take note though is that, this year there will be more investor events right after results season compared to last year. These events may generate continuous interests and provide some support to the market. There will be DBS, DMG, Citigroup and JP morgan conferences sometime from 15-23rd August.
Nonetheless, I would still set my exit point and monitor the individual stock movement closely.
Thursday, July 20, 2006
SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET NEWS
I mentioned about a potential rebound on 18july morning based on the observation that many stocks have rapidly moved into oversold position, the first potential signal of a technical rebound. The slight rebound which started the same day was not broad base and volume was light. But on 19th july, the rebound continued with better volume reflecting that the rebound is gathering pace. However, some stocks still closed near day low. But this is quite common after a sell down as bulls and bears continue to fight it out. With a strong overnight rebound in US, the upward today should be more evident and broad base. Enjoy the upmove while it last. Happy trading.
results coming soon and chart looking positive :
jadason
aztech
cosco
I mentioned about a potential rebound on 18july morning based on the observation that many stocks have rapidly moved into oversold position, the first potential signal of a technical rebound. The slight rebound which started the same day was not broad base and volume was light. But on 19th july, the rebound continued with better volume reflecting that the rebound is gathering pace. However, some stocks still closed near day low. But this is quite common after a sell down as bulls and bears continue to fight it out. With a strong overnight rebound in US, the upward today should be more evident and broad base. Enjoy the upmove while it last. Happy trading.
results coming soon and chart looking positive :
jadason
aztech
cosco
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET - POTENTIAL REBOUND IN-SIGHT?
After the recent sold down, more and more stocks are "finally" reaching oversold levels....this is something i have been waiting for since i prefer to set my position "only" when i see more stocks hitting oversold levels. Below are some of them :
RSI & Stochastics oversold :
1. UTAC
2. China Milk
3. Gallant Venture
4. Longcheer
Stochastics oversold (very long list....good sign, will just mention a few)
1-4 As above
5. Luzhou
6. Biosensor
7. Sky china
8. Jiutian
9. Landwind
10. Hengxing
11. Bright World
12. C&O
13. ChinaLife
14. China paper
15. Reyoung
16. Ferrochina
17. China sky
18. China Dairy
19. Technics
20. Fungchoi
21. DMX
22. Federal
23. Memory Devices
As u can see, the oversold list is quite long and this is actually a good sign since many HOT china stocks have moved very RAPIDLY from overbought levels to oversold levels. Historically, when we see just a rapid swing, the probability of a quick rebound is high.......we just need a catalyst......so watch US market or Japan market movements. Also watch for intraday breakout signals.
In the next 1to3 days, there is a good chance that some of the stocks mentioned above will see a nice technical rebound.....if u happen to pick any durians, remember to take profit since this is a techical rebound!!
After the recent sold down, more and more stocks are "finally" reaching oversold levels....this is something i have been waiting for since i prefer to set my position "only" when i see more stocks hitting oversold levels. Below are some of them :
RSI & Stochastics oversold :
1. UTAC
2. China Milk
3. Gallant Venture
4. Longcheer
Stochastics oversold (very long list....good sign, will just mention a few)
1-4 As above
5. Luzhou
6. Biosensor
7. Sky china
8. Jiutian
9. Landwind
10. Hengxing
11. Bright World
12. C&O
13. ChinaLife
14. China paper
15. Reyoung
16. Ferrochina
17. China sky
18. China Dairy
19. Technics
20. Fungchoi
21. DMX
22. Federal
23. Memory Devices
As u can see, the oversold list is quite long and this is actually a good sign since many HOT china stocks have moved very RAPIDLY from overbought levels to oversold levels. Historically, when we see just a rapid swing, the probability of a quick rebound is high.......we just need a catalyst......so watch US market or Japan market movements. Also watch for intraday breakout signals.
In the next 1to3 days, there is a good chance that some of the stocks mentioned above will see a nice technical rebound.....if u happen to pick any durians, remember to take profit since this is a techical rebound!!
Monday, July 17, 2006
SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET – picking durians season ahead?
Well, since I don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future, I tend to rely a lot on historical data to give me an idea what to expect ahead.
If I were to use the May correction as an indication, the market corrected about one whole month (I think a reasonable correction typically takes 2-4weeks and STI falls between 5 to10%) and did not stage any meaningful rebound UNTIL many stocks reached oversold levels technically speaking (I prefer to use stochastics), at least the hot stocks should reach oversold first before the other laggards do.
Now if we look at the hot stocks.....eg celestial, china sun etc I DO NOT see them hitting oversold levels yet. Before that happens, some of them may stage a short live rebound. I prefer to stay on the side until I see MANY of them hitting oversold levels....like picking ripe durians from the ground. If you enter the durian orchard too early, the durians may hit you on your head instead of you picking them up from the ground....haha
Well, since I don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future, I tend to rely a lot on historical data to give me an idea what to expect ahead.
If I were to use the May correction as an indication, the market corrected about one whole month (I think a reasonable correction typically takes 2-4weeks and STI falls between 5 to10%) and did not stage any meaningful rebound UNTIL many stocks reached oversold levels technically speaking (I prefer to use stochastics), at least the hot stocks should reach oversold first before the other laggards do.
Now if we look at the hot stocks.....eg celestial, china sun etc I DO NOT see them hitting oversold levels yet. Before that happens, some of them may stage a short live rebound. I prefer to stay on the side until I see MANY of them hitting oversold levels....like picking ripe durians from the ground. If you enter the durian orchard too early, the durians may hit you on your head instead of you picking them up from the ground....haha
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
CHARTERED
Stocks went down in june due to downgrade by Dresner in early june.
It touched a closing low of 1.29 on 29june but since then has been moving up steadily.
Results due 21july....potential pre-result play stocks
In 1Q06 best entry timing was 6 days before results day
This time round, the stock has started moving yest (8days before results)....and breakout today some more despite weak market...positive divergence
Technical signs looking good :
Parabolic positive
RSI and stochastics forming higher lows
MACD already cut up
You be the judge and see if it is worth trading, if you don’t like the mother, can look at the daughter (warrants) too, maybe more sexy
Stocks went down in june due to downgrade by Dresner in early june.
It touched a closing low of 1.29 on 29june but since then has been moving up steadily.
Results due 21july....potential pre-result play stocks
In 1Q06 best entry timing was 6 days before results day
This time round, the stock has started moving yest (8days before results)....and breakout today some more despite weak market...positive divergence
Technical signs looking good :
Parabolic positive
RSI and stochastics forming higher lows
MACD already cut up
You be the judge and see if it is worth trading, if you don’t like the mother, can look at the daughter (warrants) too, maybe more sexy
SHORT TERM MARKET TAKE
Yesterday small-mid cap stocks open gap up with a flurry of buy call reports BUT was sold down on heavy volume and most of them close on day low. I see this as a negative sign since today many stocks have not recovered from yesterday sell down. As such, I have decided to close long positions today.
The selling pattern today seems similar to yesterday, up in morning and very soon selling starts again…..this looks like some form of “planned” selling by certain parties……
Bearing in mind that the huge volume yesterday will be due in 2-3 days time. So market will be under some selling pressure in the near term.
Technically speaking, many hot stocks have moved into overbought region so this selldown is not completely unexpected. I would wait for the oversold indicators to cool off a bit before deciding my next move.
2Q06 results season should start again soon so I would take this sell down as opportunity to build some small position and trade for result play stocks. I will not buy too early ahead until i know the proposed resultss date.....then buy 3-5 days before that.
But this is only for short term trading as I expect market to be weak again after results season is over.
stocks to watch on pullback (results play and/or good technical signs) :
1. chartered (results date 21jul)
2. DMX
3. China aviation
4. longcheer
5. JEL (results date 8aug)
6. Aztech
7. UTAC (results date 26jul)
Yesterday small-mid cap stocks open gap up with a flurry of buy call reports BUT was sold down on heavy volume and most of them close on day low. I see this as a negative sign since today many stocks have not recovered from yesterday sell down. As such, I have decided to close long positions today.
The selling pattern today seems similar to yesterday, up in morning and very soon selling starts again…..this looks like some form of “planned” selling by certain parties……
Bearing in mind that the huge volume yesterday will be due in 2-3 days time. So market will be under some selling pressure in the near term.
Technically speaking, many hot stocks have moved into overbought region so this selldown is not completely unexpected. I would wait for the oversold indicators to cool off a bit before deciding my next move.
2Q06 results season should start again soon so I would take this sell down as opportunity to build some small position and trade for result play stocks. I will not buy too early ahead until i know the proposed resultss date.....then buy 3-5 days before that.
But this is only for short term trading as I expect market to be weak again after results season is over.
stocks to watch on pullback (results play and/or good technical signs) :
1. chartered (results date 21jul)
2. DMX
3. China aviation
4. longcheer
5. JEL (results date 8aug)
6. Aztech
7. UTAC (results date 26jul)
Monday, July 10, 2006
World Cup Over, Let's Look Forward to Pre 2Q06 Results Play
If we look at market movement lately, the market is actually smarter than I think....haha
I expected it to correct before world cup starts........but it corrected much earlier in early May.
Then I thought maybe right before world cup ends it should bottom out....it actually bottomed out in early June......so I missed the bottom and now selective hot stocks are already up 30 to 50% from recent bottom.
So what to do next? I think the market still got upside, at least for one more round of pre-results play. Today I noticed that even selective tech stocks are starting to stage a more sustainable upward movement....this means nice rotational play is going on as the smart money is not willing to leave the market yet, after making some nice bucks from China stocks.
I suppose we will follow the smart money la.....continue to look for China stocks with potential good earnings growth and some tech stock charts are looking nice too eg seksun, aztech, longcheer, innovalue
Barring any major setback from major markets, Singapore small-mip stocks should still be able to move upward, at least until the 2Q06 results play is over.....results season ends 15Aug
If we look at market movement lately, the market is actually smarter than I think....haha
I expected it to correct before world cup starts........but it corrected much earlier in early May.
Then I thought maybe right before world cup ends it should bottom out....it actually bottomed out in early June......so I missed the bottom and now selective hot stocks are already up 30 to 50% from recent bottom.
So what to do next? I think the market still got upside, at least for one more round of pre-results play. Today I noticed that even selective tech stocks are starting to stage a more sustainable upward movement....this means nice rotational play is going on as the smart money is not willing to leave the market yet, after making some nice bucks from China stocks.
I suppose we will follow the smart money la.....continue to look for China stocks with potential good earnings growth and some tech stock charts are looking nice too eg seksun, aztech, longcheer, innovalue
Barring any major setback from major markets, Singapore small-mip stocks should still be able to move upward, at least until the 2Q06 results play is over.....results season ends 15Aug
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