Singapore listed Chinese Companies - S Chips

Some of my friends asked me what i think of Singapore listed Chinese Stocks know as S chips, I shall do a brief writeup about my personal views :

Many of the S chips listed in Singapore are now trading at low PE (share price to EPS ratio) or near cash per share because :
1. Despite some signs that the global financial crisis may be over, recent reported financial results remain weak (eg profit continue to decline or margins have not recovered)

2. Confidence were badly shaken due to the accounting scandals or corporate governance issues affecting some S chips

Let’s look at the above 2 points separately.

Point 1 - this is a more general reason which can affect all companies, not just S-chips, so all we have to do is do more homework and analyze the financial results of the companies, and look for signs of recovery. One of the early signals which I use sometimes is look for “sequential” earnings recovery, rather than year-on-year recovery. Sequential means comparing the latest net profit (eg 3Q09) to that 3 months ago (eg 2Q09) and if you see the company profit improving due to better operating performance (rather than forex gains or unusual items like writebacks) than this is the first thing that will get my attention.

Point 2 - i personally think that the entire S-chips sector have been “over-punished” by the actions of a few bad apples. Bear in mind that be it accounting scandals or frauds or corporate governance issues, all these happen to all stock markets, even in Hong Kong and US stock markets. But the interesting part is how the people “react” to it when it happens.

In Hong Kong, when you see certain negative news about the market, the press will just report it (usually in smaller column) and move on. Hong Kong press seldom devote a large section of the newspaper to play up the issue. In Singapore, I saw the press devoting half a page to highlight certain things and continue to highlight these issues for many days. Doing it and over-doing it is a fine line…….. to me hong kong press just do it but singapore press may have over-done it.

If the press over-report certain negative aspects, then it will hit the core of investor confidence, that they will think ALL S-chips are bad and this will bring down the valuations of ALL S-chips.

In Hong Kong and even US, we have seen the press reporting certain fraud cases but they do not over-report it and quickly move on to other matters. Investors take these incidence as part and parcel of the stock market, fraud are things that have happened and will continue to happen in the financial markets. One should not react as though it is incomprehensible that fraud can happen to listed companies in Singapore. This is one of the possible reasons why the PE of china companies in hong kong has recovered much “faster” compared to those China companies PE in Singapore. I use the word “faster” because HK listed china companies PE are usually higher than S-chips.

What’s done is done, so what to expect next for Singapore S-chips…..

If you look at the PE S-chips are at now ie trading 3 to 5x pe, these valuations to me are pre-ipo valuations and we know that pre-ipo valuations means High risk High returns.

These means “some” of the s-chips may yet blow up due to the high risk associated with but “some” who survive will give high returns later from the low valuation they are at now. One good example would be an S-chip called Sinotel. The lowest price was around 7c (when EPS was about 10c) this means the stock was trading below 1x PE haha, we can laugh now in hind-sight. But when smart money realize the rediculous under-valuation, the stock price start to recover and recently went to as high as 70c (10 bagger is the high return some pre-ipo projects may give).

So when we look at S-chips now, we should adopt they way PE (private equity) fund invest in pre-ipo project…..they expect high risks and high returns, so they DIVERSIFY.

PE fund usually try to go in at 2-4x pe before ipo and wait to make few baggers when the ipo goes through.

But if the ipo is stucked or failed, their money may go up in smoke.

So they usually try to spread their money evenly in a few projects such that as long as some make it, they will still make money at the end of the day.

In summary, look at s-chips as pre-ipo projects (high risk high return), and learn to diversify when you put money in s-chips with the expectation that some may still blow up in your face ;)

Before I sign off, let’s not forget the quietly growing number of I-chips (Singapore listed Indonesia Owned) listed in Singapore share market and the “thrill” that they are giving us now………hmm sounds familiar eh

Happy Trading

Rooney

SINGAPORE STOCK MARKET NEWS :
Upcoming Results Reporting Period as announced on SGX MASNET

Date of Release Company

15-Oct MAP Technology Hldgs 3Q; After 5pm
17-Oct Ascendas REIT 2Q; After 5pm
17-Oct MobileOne 3Q; After 5pm
20-Oct Qian Hu Corp 3Q; After 5pm
21-Oct Aztech Systems 3Q; After 5pm
21-Oct CapitaMall Trust 3Q; Before 7.30am
22-Oct Ascott Residence Trust 3Q; Before 7.30am
22-Oct Mapletree Logistics Trust 3Q; Before 8.30am
22-Oct Osim Int'l 3Q
23-Oct CapitaCommercial Trust 3Q
29-Oct NOL 3Q; Tentative
30-Oct Cambridge Industrial Trust 3Q
5-Nov Starhub 3Q; After 5pm
11-Nov CitySpring Infrastructure 3Q
14-Nov Armstrong Industrial Corp 3Q
By 14-Nov QAF 3Q; Profit Warning
By 14-Nov United Food Hldgs 3Q; Profit Warning

SINGAPORE SHARE MARKET NEWS : Straits Asia Resources
OCBC Investment Research, Oct 8

STILL a 'buy' despite bear-case assumptions: Shares of Straits Asia Resources (SAR) have plunged by 49 per cent over the past two weeks, starkly underperforming the Straits Times Index's (STI) 14 per cent fall.
We spoke to management and gathered that other than the recent cancellation of its restructuring plans, the fundamentals have not changed.

A substantial portion of SAR's shareholding spread comprises US funds, several of which have been trimming their positions. We suspect that this could have triggered the price fall, and weakness could persist if global funds continue to face high redemptions.

Restructure cancellation renders SAR a pure Indonesian coal play: SAR recently called off restructuring plans, citing volatile market conditions and lack of shareholders' support. To recap, the restructuring would have involved SAR acquiring coal interests in Madagascar and Brunei for US$100.3 million and taking up a secondary listing in Australia.

We were positive on the acquisition as it would have transformed SAR, which currently derives all its coal from Indonesia, into a global player with geographically diversified coal assets and larger reserves. The cancellation of the acquisition has eliminated what we view as a key catalyst for SAR's growth. Nevertheless, management remains positive on its organic growth and reiterates that it is on track to raise production levels at its Indonesian mines.

Pressure off its balance sheet: On the bright side, the restructure cancellation takes some pressure off SAR's balance sheet. We were expecting the US$100.3 million acquisition cost to be funded by debt, which would have been challenging in light of today's tight credit market and could have strained the company's gearing levels.

With the restructuring exercise out of its way, SAR can now focus on refinancing its US$230 million bridge facility (for the acquisition of
Jembayan) that matures in December 2008.

We understand that SAR is close to securing a US$300 million loan. Finance costs, however, are expected to rise in line with London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) and widening spreads.

Changing our assumptions to factor in bear-case scenario: We have lowered our earnings and fair value estimates to reflect the following bear-case
assumptions:
lower production from FY2009, assuming that SAR fails to obtain
relevant permits to extend its Sebuku Mine boundary;
lower ASP on softening global demand for energy and commodities; and
higher borrowing costs.

In addition, we change our valuation methodology to the free cash flow to the firm model, bringing our fair value estimate to S$2.25 (from S$4.66).
Nevertheless, we maintain our 'buy' rating on SAR.

Singapore stock market news & update

Singpoare listed companies results release date - updated as at 31july08

4-Aug ARA Asset Management 1H FY08; After 5pm
4-Aug Cosco Corporation 1H FY08; After 5pm
4-Aug Memtech Int'l 1H FY08; After 5pm
5-Aug Celestial NutriFoods 1H FY08
5-Aug China Hongxing 1H FY08
5-Aug Hi-P 1H FY08; Before 9am
5-Aug Hyflux Water Trust 1H FY08; After 5pm
5-Aug Mermaid Maritime 1H FY08
5-Aug Tuan Sing Hldgs 1H FY08; After 5pm
6-Aug SembCorp Industries 1H FY08; After 5pm
6-Aug Synear Food Hldgs 1H FY08; After 5pm
7-Aug Broadway Industrial Grp 1H FY08; After 5pm
7-Aug Centraland 1H FY08; After 5pm
7-Aug Electrotech Investments 1H FY08; After 5pm
7-Aug LMA Int'l 1H FY08
7-Aug Midas Hldgs 1H FY08; After 5pm
7-Aug NOL Tentative
8-Aug Hiap Hoe 1H FY08
8-Aug Hotel Royal 1H FY08; After 5pm
8-Aug SuperBowl Hldgs 1H FY08
11-Aug Eastern Asia Technology (Eastech) 1H FY08
11-Aug Ho Bee 1H FY08
11-Aug Lee Kim Tah 1H FY08; After 5pm
11-Aug Sino-Environment Tech Grp 1H FY08; After 5pm
12-Aug Armstrong Industrial Corp 1H FY08
12-Aug China Lifestyle Food and Beverages Grp 1H FY08; After 5pm
12-Aug Golden Agri-Resources 1H FY08; After 12.30pm
12-Aug Hotel Plaza 1H FY08
12-Aug IFS Capital 1H FY08; After 5pm
12-Aug Macarthurcook Industrial REIT 1Q FY08
12-Aug SingTel 1Q FY08; Before 9am
12-Aug ST Engg 1H FY08; After 5pm
12-Aug Straits Trading 1H FY08
12-Aug UOL Group 1H FY08
13-Aug Advanced Holdings 1H FY08; After 12.30pm
13-Aug Breadtalk Group 1H FY08; After 5pm
13-Aug ComfortDelgro Corporation 1H FY08; After 5pm
13-Aug Ellipsiz FY08; Profit Warning
13-Aug Petra Foods 1H FY08; Before 9am
13-Aug Swiber Hldgs 1H FY08; After 5pm
13-Aug United Overseas Insurance 1H FY08
14-Aug City Developments 1H FY08
14-Aug HTL Int'l 1H FY08
14-Aug IndoFood Agri 1H FY08; After 5pm
14-Aug Nera Telecommunications 1H FY08; After 5pm
14-Aug Wilmar Int'l 1H FY08; After 5pm
18-Aug Chosen Hldgs 1H FY08; After 5pm
20-Aug ASL Marine 1H FY08; After 5pm
29-Oct NOL Tentative

Singapore share market - 6th june 2008
Summary Financial News of the Day
• NYSE short interest hits record high in late May
• Spooked investors snap up Singapore government bonds
• CAI in joint bid to operate St Petersburg airport
• Keppel wins US$420m SeaDrill rigs order
• SembCorp Marine wins US$430m SeaDrill rig orders
• Olam shares slide on news of convertible bond issue
• Kohlberg Kravis Roberts close to buying Unisteel
• ST Engineering unit wins 88.7m yuan Guangzhou deal
• Dayen diversifies into energy sector
• Banker Ong Chong Jin to head Catalist