Singapore share market update :

DBS downgrades singapore listed S-chip China XLX to FULLY VALUED (Bloomberg Code: CXLX SP) Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.33

DBS comments :
DBS expects China XLX to report weak 4Q08 earnings, plunging 50% qoq and 33% yoy to c. RMB50m. This comes on the back of 30%-40% fall in ASP, which affects the profitability of compound fertilizer and methanol segments. Looking into 2009, the consolidation phase is likely to be accelerated and margin contraction is expected in the transition. The share price has performed well and is now trading above our valuation. Downgrade to Fully Valued.

Outlook in 2009 = Consolidation + Margin Contraction
The urea sector in China is expected to accelerate its consolidation and increase industry concentration in 2009. Given most of the small players are operating at losses currently, many of them are likely to be phased out in the next 6-12months. Meanwhile, margins for urea producers will be compressed in the transition. We expect big players to garner 15%-25% of gross margins vs 30%-40% in 1Q06 to 2Q08, assuming urea prices hover around RMB1600-1650/ton and coal prices about RMb900-1000/ton.

Valuation appears relatively rich
Our TP is maintained at S$0.33. We have cut FY09 and FY10 earnings by 23% each year but have raised valuation peg to 7.0x (vs 5.0x previously) FY09 PEs. This is in line with a 30% discount to global peers average valuation. We also believe that CXLX would benefit from the accelerated consolidation in the longer term. However, current valuation appears stretched at 8.2x 09PE, relative to its global peers as well as other S chips. With the lacking of near term catalyst, we downgrade the stock to Fully Valued.