SINGAPORE SHARE MARKET NEWS : Straits Asia Resources
OCBC Investment Research, Oct 8

STILL a 'buy' despite bear-case assumptions: Shares of Straits Asia Resources (SAR) have plunged by 49 per cent over the past two weeks, starkly underperforming the Straits Times Index's (STI) 14 per cent fall.
We spoke to management and gathered that other than the recent cancellation of its restructuring plans, the fundamentals have not changed.

A substantial portion of SAR's shareholding spread comprises US funds, several of which have been trimming their positions. We suspect that this could have triggered the price fall, and weakness could persist if global funds continue to face high redemptions.

Restructure cancellation renders SAR a pure Indonesian coal play: SAR recently called off restructuring plans, citing volatile market conditions and lack of shareholders' support. To recap, the restructuring would have involved SAR acquiring coal interests in Madagascar and Brunei for US$100.3 million and taking up a secondary listing in Australia.

We were positive on the acquisition as it would have transformed SAR, which currently derives all its coal from Indonesia, into a global player with geographically diversified coal assets and larger reserves. The cancellation of the acquisition has eliminated what we view as a key catalyst for SAR's growth. Nevertheless, management remains positive on its organic growth and reiterates that it is on track to raise production levels at its Indonesian mines.

Pressure off its balance sheet: On the bright side, the restructure cancellation takes some pressure off SAR's balance sheet. We were expecting the US$100.3 million acquisition cost to be funded by debt, which would have been challenging in light of today's tight credit market and could have strained the company's gearing levels.

With the restructuring exercise out of its way, SAR can now focus on refinancing its US$230 million bridge facility (for the acquisition of
Jembayan) that matures in December 2008.

We understand that SAR is close to securing a US$300 million loan. Finance costs, however, are expected to rise in line with London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) and widening spreads.

Changing our assumptions to factor in bear-case scenario: We have lowered our earnings and fair value estimates to reflect the following bear-case
assumptions:
lower production from FY2009, assuming that SAR fails to obtain
relevant permits to extend its Sebuku Mine boundary;
lower ASP on softening global demand for energy and commodities; and
higher borrowing costs.

In addition, we change our valuation methodology to the free cash flow to the firm model, bringing our fair value estimate to S$2.25 (from S$4.66).
Nevertheless, we maintain our 'buy' rating on SAR.